Charles Town, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

441
FXUS61 KLWX 130144
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
844 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure briefly builds back over the region Wednesday.
Precipitation chances return with another cold front Thursday
into Friday, that could bring light wintry precipitation to
parts of the Alleghenies Thursday morning. Dry conditions and
moderating temperatures are expected this weekend into early
next week as high pressure returns to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold tonight. However, we maintain a steady 5-10mph wind
which will prevent the full potential of radiational cooling.
Regardless, the coldest air of the fall thus far moves into the
area tonight, dropping lows to the 20s for most, with low to
mid 30s along the immediate Western Shore, and possible upper
teens to low 20s in the highest elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Canadian surface ridge moves east across Quebec as sharp mid-level
ridging moves over the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. Dry and cool
conditions expected, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Some
gusty north winds in the morning quickly diminish by early
afternoon, as winds veer northeast in response to the surface ridge
pulling away from the area.

The weather pattern becomes active Wednesday night into Thursday. A
strong, progressive upper trough over the Midwest/Mid-South pushes
east toward the Mid-Atlantic. Ahead of this system forcing for
ascent and decent moisture advection push showers into the
Alleghenies early Thursday morning, then rain overspread the area by
Thursday afternoon.

The onset of east to southeast winds Wednesday night sets up a weak
CAD across the area, with marginal temperatures that are forecast to
be around freezing (from 29F to 34F west of I-95). A light wintry
mix of snow, sleet, and/or freezing rain is possible over the
higher/sheltered valleys of the Alleghenies from eastern Garrett and
western Allegany counties south to Highland County. In these
locations, colder air will remain trapped the longest due in part to
light east to southeast flow. There could also be a light wintry mix
in parts of the Central VA Blue Ridge. Any snow/sleet/freezing rain
accumulation is expected to be light, only a few hundredths of an
inch, and be mainly on elevated surfaces. Given the very dry surface
air ahead of the system, warm road temps, and marginal air
temperatures, do not expect Winter Weather Advisories to be issued
at this time. Likely a Special Weather Statement for slick spots
during the Thursday morning commute. However, continue to monitor
the situation as model trends could change.

Elsewhere, chilly conditions Thursday as highs hover in the upper
40s west of I-95, and to low 50s along/east of I-95. On and off
showers become steadier during the afternoon, then decrease in
coverage Thursday night. Rain amounts around half an inch across the
area. Lows Thursday night settle in the mid 30s to low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Lingering moisture will continue to move further east and offshore
on Friday for most areas as a low pressure system departs. Some
light precipitation may continue across the Allegheny Front and
higher elevations heading into Saturday. Heights build by the
weekend with a slow warming trend starting with highs in the upper
50s to low 60s.

Gusty winds will be possible Saturday between as a result of a
tightening pressure gradient from a departing low to the east and
incoming high pressure to the west. Could see gusts anywhere from 20
to 30 mph, especially during the afternoon hours. Dry and mostly
sunny conditions linger on Sunday with highs getting closer to the
mid 60s for the lower elevations while the mountains remain in the
mid to upper 50s.  A weak, moisture starved front looks to cross the
area by early next week with temperatures at or just above normal
for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through Wednesday night. Winds diminish
overnight into Wednesday. Winds switch to the east and
southeast Wednesday, and gust under 15 knots.

Sub-VFR ceilings are possible Thursday into Thursday night as
another cold front crosses the region. The front will bring renewed
chances for light to moderate showers across the terminals
throughout the day.

Some lingering rain showers will be possible early Friday across the
terminals, leading to a potential period of low ceilings. Clouds
should diminish heading into the afternoon and evening hours with
VFR conditions persisting heading into the weekend. Gusty NW winds
will pick up Saturday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty northwest to north winds continue across the waters through
tonight. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for gusts up to 30
knots. The strongest winds are expected over the open waters of
the Chesapeake Bay.

Winds diminish Wednesday morning, though SCA conditions remain over
parts of the waters through around noon Wednesday. After that, high
pressure over the region maintains favorable Marine conditions.

Sub-SCA level winds continue into Thursday with light to moderate
showers traversing the waters as another front sweeps through the
region. Winds switch to the southeast with gusts around 10-15
kt.

SCAs are becoming increasingly likely Friday into Saturday with a
tighter pressure gradient over the waters. A few light rain showers
will be possible near the waters early in the day on Friday before
dry conditions build in through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity values will jump back into the 75 to 95 percent
range tonight before tanking Wednesday into the 20 to 30 percent
range areawide. Much lighter winds on Wednesday, with the highest
gusts around 10-15 mph. Still, an elevated fire weather threat may
exist given the prolonged dry period.

Widespread wetting rains reach the area Thursday into Thursday
night, that should decrease the fire weather threat through
Friday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The strong northwest to north winds are causing a blowout tide
across Chesapeake Bay, and is especially evident in the northern
part of the Bay and Tidal Patapsco River. Water levels could drop to
-1FT MLLW during low tide overnight tonight into early Wednesday
morning. Mariners should use caution if navigating the waters during
low tide tonight.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ530>532-
     538>540.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ533-534-
     537-541>543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...CPB/KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...ADM
AVIATION...ADM/CPB/KRR
MARINE...ADM/CPB/KRR
FIRE WEATHER...KRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRR